Från: PowerfulChoices [PowerfulChoices@gmail.com]

Skickat: Thursday, September 09, 2010 8:58 AM

Till: 'Nehemia Gordon'; 'karaite_korner_news-owner@yahoogroups.com'

Kopia: 'Keith Johnson'

Ämne: Comparing the darkness of the sky... More computer simulations RE: [Karaite Korner Newsletter] #474: When is Yom Teruah?

Without recourse. All Rights Reserved. Powerful Choices ©  Gunnar Anders Smårs Jr ©

Non-Negotiable. Private between the parties.

Adamah Republic ©

5940(?) 06 29 2026

Written this Fifth Day,

the 29^th day of month #6, Elul 29,

in the 5940^th year(?), following the beginning recorded in Genesis 1

and in the 2026^th year following the beginning recorded in Luke 1:26-33

[Thursday, the 4^th day of the week, September 9 in the 2010^th year of Caesar Tiberius

(per current Gregorian reckoning in Europe and elsewhere.) Cf. Daniel 7:25…]

Dear Nehemiah,

Per your suggestion, “(allowing the background to grow darker,)” I’ve been studying into the particular light situations, the darkness of the sky, while comparing tonight’s very potential New Moon crescent with that of the one observed from Beitar near Jerusalem on November 13, 2004.

You’ll find my study at each of these two links (the two of them containing much the same details:)

1. In the form of a PowerPoint presentation, and

2. in the format of a Word document with embedded pictures.

Please download and enjoy with me in preparation for tonight’s very interesting celestial events!

Shalom,

Gunnar ©

Från: PowerfulChoices [mailto:PowerfulChoices@gmail.com]
Skickat: Wednesday, September 08, 2010 3:56 PM
Till: 'Nehemia Gordon'; 'karaite_korner_news-owner@yahoogroups.com'
Kopia: 'Keith Johnson'
Ämne: More RE: [Karaite Korner Newsletter] #474: When is Yom Teruah? - Software simulations of the September 9, 2010 New Moon and of the November 13, 2004 New Moon observed from Beitar near Jerusalem..

Without recourse. All Rights Reserved. Powerful Choices ©  Gunnar Anders Smårs Jr ©

Non-Negotiable. Private between the parties.

Adamah Republic ©

5940(?) 06 23 [28] 2026

Written this Fourth Day,

the 28^th day of month #6, Elul 28

in the 5940^th year(?), following the beginning recorded in Genesis 1

and in the 2026^th year following the beginning recorded in Luke 1:26-33

[Wednesday, the 3^rd day of the week, September 8 in the 2010^th year of Caesar Tiberius

(per current Gregorian reckoning in Europe and elsewhere.) Cf. Daniel 7:25…]

Dear Nehemiah,

In addition to my last prior response to you (copy below) I thought I might illustrate my point by these picture simulations for all our benefit:

First the one observed at Beitar on November 13, 2004…

Then tomorrow’s New Moon on Thursday September 9, 2010…

Notice in particular that tomorrow’s moon is much further away from the brightness of the setting sun while also much brighter than the New Moon at Beitar!

Naturally the end result, whether seen or not, depends upon the overall weather conditions. The proof will be in the pudding… tomorrow night!

What a Shofar Feast!

Shalom,

Gunnar ©

Från: PowerfulChoices [mailto:PowerfulChoices@gmail.com]
Skickat: Wednesday, September 08, 2010 2:44 PM
Till: 'Nehemia Gordon'
Kopia: 'Keith Johnson'
Ämne: SV: [Karaite Korner Newsletter] #474: When is Yom Teruah? - As best I can predict from your own records the New Moon will be visible on September 9 from Beitar near Jerusalem from 6:59 PM until 7:03 PM and from Ashdod from 6:51 PM until at least 6:58

Without recourse. All Rights Reserved. Powerful Choices ©  Gunnar Anders Smårs Jr ©

Non-Negotiable. Private between the parties.

Adamah Republic ©

5940(?) 23 [28] 2026

Written this Fourth Day,

the 28^th day of month #6, Elul 28

in the 5940^th year(?), following the beginning recorded in Genesis 1

and in the 2026^th year following the beginning recorded in Luke 1:26-33

[Wednesday, the 3^rd day of the week, September 8 in the 2010^th year of Caesar Tiberius

(per current Gregorian reckoning in Europe and elsewhere.) Cf. Daniel 7:25…]

Dear Nehemiah,

Yes, it is also true that tomorrow’s New Moon is about 1 degree closer to the horizon at the time of sunset than was the one seen from Beitar near Jerusalem on  November 13, 2004 (4° 40’ vs. 5° 40’.) However, it seems to me that the illumination of tomorrow’s moon being almost twice the illumination of the one seen at Beitar will more than make up for the difference (2.44% vs. 1.44%) in altitude above the horizon relative to the setting sun. Notice too, that that greater illumination of tomorrow’s moon also means that it is almost twice the distance from the center of light above and adjacent to the setting sun!

That is, yet another point in favor of a visible moon tomorrow!

I sure hope that there will be experienced New Moon crescent observers placing themselves at the best possible observation posts in the Jerusalem area and elsewhere and that no one will stay home sleeping based on a foregone conclusion that the New Moon cannot be seen!? There are altogether too many self-fulfilling prophecies being created by such reasoning, or don’t you agree?

Shalom,

Gunnar ©

PS. I do realize that you have infinitely more insight and experience into the details of New Moon observation than does a Newbie such as myself,  so please forgive me for my perhaps childish belief of possibly recognizing something or other that you didn’t already know much more about than I do… Please look at me as a curious and interested disciple of a subject such as you are the Master of!

Från: Nehemia Gordon [mailto:ngordon4@gmail.com]
Skickat: Wednesday, September 08, 2010 1:39 PM
Till: PowerfulChoices@gmail.com
Ämne: Re: [Karaite Korner Newsletter] #474: When is Yom Teruah? - As best I can predict from your own records the New Moon will be visible on September 9 from Beitar near Jerusalem from 6:59 PM until 7:03 PM and from Ashdod from 6:51 PM until at least 6:58

Shalom,

Your X access gives information that is misleading. You need to plot the lagtime, not the time after sunset before observation. In there case there is only a lagtime of about 26 minutes so 30 minutes before moonset the sun will still be above the horizon. What you aren't taking into account is how high the moon is above the horizon relative to how long has elapsed after sunset (allowing the background to grow darker). The lagtime takes this into account.

Nehemia

On Wed, Sep 8, 2010 at 3:28 PM, PowerfulChoices <powerfulchoices@gmail.com> wrote:

Without recourse. All Rights Reserved. Powerful Choices ©  Gunnar Anders Smårs Jr ©

Non-Negotiable. Private between the parties.

Adamah Republic ©

5940(?) 23 [28] 2026

Written this Fourth Day,

the 28^th day of month #6, Elul 28

in the 5940^th year(?), following the beginning recorded in Genesis 1

and in the 2026^th year following the beginning recorded in Luke 1:26-33

[Wednesday, the 3^rd day of the week, September 8 in the 2010^th year of Caesar Tiberius

(per current Gregorian reckoning in Europe and elsewhere.) Cf. Daniel 7:25…]

Dear Nehemiah,

After much additional consideration and detailed study of your 10 years of accumulated New Moon crescent reports, I am reasonably certain that you should be able to observe the New Moon crescent tomorrow night on September 9^th, provided only 1) that the weather permits…, and 2) that you are located at an observation post such that the light pollution from the ground approaches, as much as possible, a situation such that visibility of the New Moon crescent is permitted until the moon sets behind the horizon, that is, not behind the daze above the horizon that is due to light pollution etc.! Here are some excellent experiential reasons from your own reports showing you why that is likely!:

1) If and when you are located at an observation post such as allows you clear visibility of the sky all the way down to the horizon, the New Moon crescent should become ever more visible as the sky darkens, even until the crescent sets behind the horizon of the Earth. This will not happen when your observation post is located such that there is a haze of light pollution above the horizon as is typically the case within and near any city such as Jerusalem etc.. I believe a good example, though not perfect, may be the observation posts being used at Ashdod, that is, in comparison with the observation posts being used at Jerusalem. Consider this scatter diagram where each point represents one observation from either Jerusalem, Ashdod, or Eilat as reported by you since July 2002:

As you can see from this diagram, given a New Moon crescent of 2.5% illumination (and no light pollution daze above the horizon,) from past experience you should be able to see tomorrows New Moon crescent from Ashdod from 5 minutes before sunset, and from Jerusalem from 5 minutes after sunset, that is, roughly 30 and 20 minutes before tomorrow’s moonset, respectively!

2) In your report from October 4, 2005, I find that, as observed using binoculars from Mt. Hizkiyaho at Eilat, the New Moon crescent became visible about 8 minutes 50 second prior to moonset, remaining visible with binoculars for an additional five minutes. That is, given those circumstances there must have been either a light pollution haze over the horizon, weather obstruction above the horizon, or else physical objects rising above the horizon, to accomplish a real time horizon obstruction of about 3 minutes 50 seconds (compared to an ideal flat horizon) at that time and location.

Somewhat comparable values for Jerusalem and Ashdod may be derived from the observations with the latest available observation relative to the moonset, which reports are a) the June 23, 2009 New Moon report for Jerusalem providing a value of no more than about 27 minutes 17 seconds or less for Jerusalem, depending on how long that New Moon crescent remained visible, and b) the September 15, 2004 New Moon report for Ashdod providing a value of no more than about 20 minutes 50 seconds or less for Ashdod, again depending on how long that New Moon crescent remained visible.

Based on the above, and provided the weather conditions are comparable, the New Moon crescent should be visible from Ashdod beginning 5 minutes before sunset and until at least 2 minutes 21 seconds after sunset, that is, 6:50:41 PM – 6:58:02. Re your usual observation posts in Jerusalem: Possibly visible New Moon beginning about 5 minutes after sunset, that is, from 6:59 PM? To optimize your chances of seeing the New Moon from the Jerusalem area, may I suggest that you place yourself upon the highest mountain in a remote area outside of Jerusalem, perhaps in the Hebron area, and such that the light pollution created by Ashdod, by Beit Shemesh, etc. are being avoided in the direction of the observed New Moon?

3) In your November 13, 2004 report for “Beitar near Jerusalem” you have recorded an observation of the New Moon at 17:01, which is only 14 minutes 17 seconds prior to moonset. In fact, that New Moon crescent would have appeared very similar to tomorrows New Moon, while having an even smaller illumination of only 1.44%! (The lag time for that New Moon was only 32 minutes 46 seconds, that is, much better than the otherwise shortest reported lag time for Jerusalem, which is 43 minutes 8 seconds (August 11, 2010.) This goes to show that the lag time from sunset to moonset is not a reliable criteria for determining visibility.)

It follows from this last record of yours that very possibly the New Moon will be visible from Beitar near Jerusalem for at least 4 minutes, that is, 6:59 PM – 7:03 PM…

Shalom,

Gunnar Anders Smårs Jr ©

Från: PowerfulChoices [mailto:PowerfulChoices@gmail.com]
Skickat: Friday, September 03, 2010 3:57 PM
Till: 'Nehemia Gordon'
Ämne: SV: [Karaite Korner Newsletter] #474: When is Yom Teruah? - How about light contamination vs. lag time? I.e. in contradistinction from latitude vs. lag time?

Without recourse. All Rights Reserved. Powerful Choices ©  Gunnar Anders Smårs Jr ©

Non-Negotiable. Private between the parties.

Adamah Republic ©

5940(?) 06 23 2026

Written this Sixth Day, the Preparation before the Shabbat,

the 23^rd day of month #6, Elul 23

in the 5940^th year(?), following the beginning recorded in Genesis 1

and in the 2026^th year following the beginning recorded in Luke 1:26-33

[Friday, the 5^th day of the week, September 3 in the 2010^th